Week 1: Will AI Take Your Job? Understanding the Shift in the Workforce
Hey everyone, welcome back to my blog! This week, I focused on understanding how past technological advancements have shaped employment and what that means for AI’s impact on the job market today.
Historical context: Automation in the workforce
To predict AI’s effects on employment in the U.S., it is essential to first examine how past technological advancements have impacted the workforce. Ever since the Luddites started destroying machine looms in the nineteenth century, it has been common knowledge that new technologies can wipe out existing jobs. But history also shows that technology can create new opportunities, reshaping and even creating new industries in the process.
For example, while the Industrial Revolution led to mass displacement of skilled artisans, it also created factory jobs and new manufacturing industries. Similarly, the rise of computers eliminated clerical and administrative jobs, but led to an explosion of opportunities in software, data science, and cybersecurity.
However, not all demographics have experienced these shifts equally. Some workers, particularly those in low-skill or repetitive jobs, have historically been more vulnerable to displacement. Meanwhile, individuals with higher education levels or technical skills have been more adaptable to change. With the rise of industrialization, as work became less physically demanding, women entered the workforce in large numbers. Gender, race, immigration status, and socioeconomic background have influenced how different demographics experience the impact of automation.
Will AI kill the job market?
One of the biggest technological debates today is the effect of Artificial Intelligence on the contemporary economy, specifically the labor market. Some studies argue that while AI may replace certain types of jobs, it will create new ones. They back this reasoning with historical precedent, arguing that from the invention of machine looms in the nineteenth century to the advent of the Internet in the late twentieth century, technology has consistently led to a net gain of jobs over time. A recent study from the World Economic Forum supports this view, predicting that while AI will displace 92 million jobs, it will create 170 million others.
However, others argue that AI is different from past technological advancements. Unlike industrial automation, which primarily replaced physical labor, AI has the capability to automate cognitive tasks, potentially displacing white-collar workers in fields like law, finance, and even creative industries. Dr. Mark van Rijmenam, globally renowned as the #1 futurist and leading voice of AI, explains that AI is the first technology that can make decisions autonomously, which means it does not need humans to decide what to do. Unlike past technological revolutions that primarily replaced physical labor, AI is encroaching on cognitive tasks across various industries. The implications of this shift can be seen in several fields:
Software Development: NVIDIA’s CEO and Founder, Jensen Huang, recently predicted that AI will be capable of doing most base-level programming work within five years. While AI won’t replace all programmers, it may reduce the demand for junior developers.
Customer Service: AI chatbots, such as those used by Amazon, Meta, Google, and Bank of America are handling customer inquiries, reducing the need for human support agents. Today, about 80% of sales and marketing leaders have implemented or plan to integrate bots into customer experience. Moreover, 62% of customers believe that AI speeds up responses while catering to their specific preferences. As these bots become more advanced, fewer human representatives will be needed.
Law: AI-driven legal research platforms like ROSS Intelligence and Harvey AI are automating tasks traditionally performed by junior lawyers and paralegals, such as analyzing case law, drafting contracts, and even predicting case outcomes. This reduces the demand for entry-level legal positions.
Finance: AI-powered trading algorithms used by firms like BlackRock and Goldman Sachs can analyze vast amounts of financial data and execute trades faster than human traders.
Why my research matters
Historically, every major technological revolution has caused widespread temporary unemployment as industries adapt and workers transition to new roles. Even if AI can create new jobs or industries in the long-run, there will be significant job displacement in the short-run as workers adapt to the new skills required. For example, a truck driver displaced by self-driving technology cannot easily transition into an AI engineering role without years of retraining. Similarly, an entry-level legal assistant may struggle to find alternative work as AI increasingly automates research and document review. With the rise of AI, more workers than ever before will struggle to gain the new skills required of them to find a job.
Governments and businesses will need to invest in large-scale reskilling programs to help workers transition into AI-proof careers. This is crucial, as if AI adoption outpaces reskilling efforts, widespread job displacement could lead to economic instability. But first, we need to understand who is most likely to be impacted, so we can prepare for the transition more effectively.
This is why my research is so important—by identifying which demographics are most vulnerable to AI-induced job displacement, we can help inform policies that support at-risk workers. If history has taught us anything, it’s that technological change is inevitable—but how we handle it determines whether it deepens inequality or drives progress. By identifying at-risk groups, we can help shape policies that ensure technology serves everyone—not just a select few.
In the following week, I plan to study regression models and learn R programming to conduct my own research. I’m excited to share my findings—stay tuned!
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